小幅反弹,比特币短期维持震荡

Slight Rebound, BTC Remains Range-Bound in Short Term

BroadChainBroadChain03/29/2023, 03:35 PM
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Summary

Over the past 24 hours, major cryptocurrencies including BTC posted a slight rebound, remaining range-bound in the short term.

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market saw relatively calm news flow: The U.S. Federal Reserve launched an internal review of its regulatory oversight of Silicon Valley Bank; China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released the “Guideline for Building the Standardization System of Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technologies (2023 Edition)” for public consultation; the UK’s crypto promotion bill is expected to be enacted by the end of 2023; Belarus has extended its cryptocurrency tax incentives until January 1, 2025; and financial asset management giant Fidelity is assembling its cryptocurrency research team. According to Bybit’s market data, major cryptocurrencies including BTC posted modest rebounds over the past day, remaining in a short-term consolidation phase.


I. Market Overview — Major Cryptocurrencies Post Modest Gains Over Past Day; Short-Term Bottoming Still Underway

Market Performance

According to Bybit’s market data, major cryptocurrencies including BTC posted modest rebounds over the past 24 hours, continuing to trade within a consolidation range. Since March 2023, after a period of one-directional upward movement, overall market volatility has intensified. BTC rose +1.74% over the past 24 hours, while ETH gained +4.38%.

Data Observations

Per CoinMarketCap data, BTC’s current market cap share stands at 45.8%, slightly down from prior levels. Per alternative.me, today’s Fear & Greed Index stands at 57, indicating a shift from fear to greed. Per Bycoin data, as of 11:00 AM today, BTC’s current funding rate is +0.003%, suggesting marginally stronger long positions in perpetual futures. The current OTC price for USDT is 6.955 CNY, with a premium of 0.92%, reflecting a slight increase in on-exchange capital inflow intent.

Macroeconomic News

The U.S. Federal Reserve launched an internal review of its regulatory oversight of Silicon Valley Bank;

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released the “Guideline for Building the Standardization System of Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technologies (2023 Edition)” for public consultation;

The UK’s crypto promotion bill is expected to be enacted by the end of 2023;

Belarus has extended its cryptocurrency tax incentives until January 1, 2025;

Financial asset management giant Fidelity is assembling its cryptocurrency research team.


II. Sector Highlights — CAMELOT LAUNCHPAD and HACKEN FOUNDATION Outperformed Over Past Day; Digital Asset Investment Products Saw $160M Net Inflows Last Week, Largest Since July 2022

Top-performing sectors in the crypto market over the past 24 hours include: CAMELOT LAUNCHPAD (+12.6%), HACKEN FOUNDATION (+7.7%), HEALTHY (+7.6%), Internet Computer Ecosystem (+6.8%), and OP Ecosystem (+6.7%).

Institutional Investment Sectors

Within the A16Z Portfolio sector, top three tokens by 24-hour gains are: YGG, LOKA, ROSE;

Within the Coinbase Ventures Portfolio sector, top three tokens by 24-hour gains are: HFT, UDT, AXL;

Within the DCG Portfolio sector, top three tokens by 24-hour gains are: HFT, XDG, MANA;

Within the Pantera Capital Portfolio sector, top three tokens by 24-hour gains are: BLT, MIR, ROSE;

Within the Animoca Brands sector, top three tokens by 24-hour gains are: TLM, GAFI, YGG;

Sector News

Approximately 80% of USDC reserves consist of short-term U.S. Treasury securities, while the remaining ~20% are cash deposits held in the U.S. banking system;

Crypto wallet MetaMask posted on social media stating that rumors circulating in the market regarding an upcoming snapshot and MASK token airdrop are false;

Canada has mandated pension funds to disclose crypto-related risks.


III. Major Cryptocurrency Price Movements — FLR and XRP Rise Against the Trend; 1inch Network’s Total Trading Volume on Arbitrum Surpasses $5 Billion

Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, the top five gainers are: MASK (+19.2%), CFX (+18.5%), LDO (+13.9%), FLR (+12.8%), and XLM (+12.7%).

Price movements among trending sector tokens:

Top three gainers in the DeFi sector: LINA, CFX, INJ;

Top three gainers in the NFT sector: GMM, MASK, CFX;

The five most actively traded tokens today are: ARB, BNB, BTC, XRP, SHIB.

Major Cryptocurrencies:

Glassnode data shows that the total value locked in the ETH 2.0 deposit contract has reached an all-time high of 17,109,063 ETH;

Lido has integrated NFTs into its unstaking process;

Ethereum Layer 2 protocol Loopring announced the launch of LRC staking.


IV. Derivatives Data Anomalies — BTC Short Positions Dominate; Short-Term Shorts Increase

According to CoinGecko data, as of 12:00 PM, BTC open interest on BitMEX stood at $1.315 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous day. The ratio of long to short positions indicates a decline in the number of BTC long holders. Overall, short positions dominate the BTC derivatives market, with Binance’s long/short ratio at 0.93, suggesting a modest uptick in short-term short positions.


V. Influencer Perspectives — CFTC Chair Reiterates View That ETH Is a Commodity

Rostin Behnam, Chair of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), reiterated during a congressional hearing on Tuesday that he considers Ether (ETH) a commodity—a potentially contentious stance diverging from the view of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair, who believes ETH may qualify as a security. The SEC’s enforcement action against Binance remains unresolved. Behnam stated that this belief underpins the CFTC’s lawsuits targeting Binance and other institutions trading Bitcoin and Ether, signaling that similar transactions conducted on other platforms may also face regulatory scrutiny.

Pablo Hernández de Cos, Chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and Governor of the Bank of Spain, speaking at an event hosted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), stated that new capital requirements—classifying unbacked crypto assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) as the highest-risk assets—will take effect in January 2025. He added that these rules may be revised if they trigger unintended systemic consequences across financial markets. Hernández de Cos remarked: “Given our awareness that markets continue to evolve, our work on this standard focuses specifically on elements most vulnerable to market shifts. We must remain prepared to adjust the standard when necessary, to best accommodate potential endogenous market responses.” He further noted: “The Committee will oversee implementation of these rules. Key jurisdictions represented on the Committee are expected to implement them within less than two years; legislators in certain regions—including the European Union—have already begun taking steps toward adoption. These rules aim to indirectly mitigate potential risks posed by crypto markets to other financial markets and address possible spillover effects of cryptocurrencies on the banking sector.”