Analyst Warns Bitcoin Surge Above $78,000 Could Be a Trap

BroadChain has learned that at 08:16 on April 21, according to NewsBTC, the rebound of Bitcoin's price above $78,000 has reignited market optimism. However, analyst Marmot warns that this rally may mask underlying weakness and is actually a typical distribution pattern or "bull trap." He pointed out that the current price is consolidating within a triangular wedge pattern between approximately $72,000 and $80,000, similar to the historical pattern seen from late 2025 to early 2026. At that time, after hitting a new high of $126,000, Bitcoin plummeted below $65,000 in February 2026. If history repeats, Bitcoin could face a significant correction, potentially dropping to the $50,000 range, representing a decline of over 33.5% from the current level of $75,200. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs recently experienced their largest single-day outflow in months, with approximately $300 million withdrawn, and Fidelity's ETF also saw outflows. Marmot believes that while retail investors are buying the dip, institutions are selling at highs and rotating capital. Meanwhile, liquidity barriers set by investment firms like BlackRock may be artificially supporting the market, creating exit liquidity for "smart money." He warns that once liquidity withdraws, Bitcoin's decline could be swift and severe, advising traders not to chase highs during capital rebalancing periods.