BroadChain, April 24, 03:16 — In a recent podcast episode, renowned trader Cobie and host Threadguy delved into the current state and future of the crypto industry. Cobie's core assessment is that the industry is undergoing a "K-shaped divergence": stablecoins, prediction markets, and on-chain trading infrastructure have made substantial progress, but ordinary investors find it difficult to capture these outcomes through public tokens.
Cobie pointed out that AI technologies (such as Anthropic's Mythos model) may transform DeFi into a "financial bounty system," significantly lowering the barriers to entrepreneurship. He cited the example of the solo project OpenClaw, which generated billions of dollars in value within a month, altering the traditional economic model for early employees—companies require fewer people, less funding, less dilution, and faster exits.
Discussing the inequities of the private market, Cobie argued that companies like SpaceX and Anthropic have grown from zero to trillions of dollars in value, yet ordinary people can hardly share in the wealth creation, which violates the promise of capitalism. He also noted that when crypto airdrop models are applied to consumer companies, they can return the value created by users back to them, akin to capitalism's response to universal basic income.
For participants in the industry's downturn, Cobie advised: if you truly believe in the future value of something, allocate resources based on that judgment; if you no longer believe and are merely chasing past excitement, you should shift your interests. He emphasized that truly great traders record their judgments and outcomes and continuously update their world models with training data.