BroadChain has learned that Bitcoin, the core asset of the crypto market, remained under selling pressure on March 30. The proportion of short-term holders in loss has widened further, while the key on-chain metric MVRV has entered a zone typically associated with bear markets, signaling growing caution among investors.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin's price is currently fluctuating between roughly $65,000 and $70,000—well below the average cost basis of approximately $85,900 for short-term holders. This means most investors who entered the market in the past six months are now holding at a loss, with the profitability of short-term holders continuing to erode.
On-chain data reveals that the short-term holder MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) has fallen to around 0.77, significantly below the 1.0 threshold that often signals bearish conditions. In late February, the metric even dropped to a low of 0.7, indicating that short-term holders are, on average, sitting on nearly 30% in unrealized losses.
As a core valuation metric for the crypto market, MVRV was first introduced in 2018 by on-chain analysis pioneers Murad Mahmudov and David Puell. The metric compares Bitcoin's current market capitalization to its on-chain realized cost, offering a view of the market's aggregate unrealized profit or loss. An MVRV reading below 1.0 generally suggests the market price is lower than the average cost basis of participants—a classic feature of bear market phases.
Analysts point out that an extended period of low MVRV indicates sustained loss pressure on short-term holders. A concentration of such loss-making positions could lead to forced selling, potentially increasing short-term volatility in the Bitcoin market—a dynamic that aligns with the cautious trading sentiment currently prevailing across the broader crypto landscape.