BroadChain learned that at 02:30 on April 24, 2026, the global crypto market is experiencing structural differentiation and volatile recovery under the triple variables of geopolitics, monetary policy, and institutionalization. After the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement took effect on April 9, the two sides have fundamental differences over the right of passage in the Strait of Hormuz—the US claims "full opening," while Iran restricts daily vessel passage to about 10 ships, less than 8% of pre-war levels. Negotiations broke down on April 12, triggering severe market volatility, with Bitcoin briefly falling to around $69,000 and the total crypto market cap evaporating over $100 billion in a single day. On April 21, Iran announced a return to negotiations, pushing Bitcoin back above $76,000, but as the ceasefire deadline approaches again on April 22, tough stances from both sides are putting pressure on the market.
On the Federal Reserve front, Trump threatened to fire Powell, the nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh advanced, and internal committee divisions between hawks and doves are evident. Uncertainty over policy independence has led to short-term weakness in the US dollar index, with gold briefly breaking above $4,800 per ounce. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) officially launched, attracting over $100 million in its first week with a fee of only 0.14%, marking Wall Street's integration of Bitcoin into standardized product systems.
Under the combined influence of these three variables, Bitcoin has shown unique resilience. However, technical difficulties and unresolved geopolitical games make it hard for the market to form a directional consensus in the short term. The battle over passage rights in the Strait of Hormuz not only reshapes the cost structure of global energy transportation but also drives Bitcoin to embed into the settlement system of international energy trade in the form of "tolls." Analysts point out that regardless of whether an agreement is reached, this model may become the new normal. In the coming weeks, whether the ceasefire agreement can be extended will be the most critical external variable for the crypto market.