BroadChain has learned that as of April 9, data from The Block shows a continued weakening in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures market. The average daily open interest for March 2026 contracts has dipped below $8 billion, falling further to around $7.2 billion in early April. This marks the lowest level since February 2024 and represents the fifth consecutive month of decline. Concurrently, monthly trading volume for March dropped to $163 billion, nearly half of the peak recorded in January 2025.
Market analysis suggests this downturn is largely driven by the unwinding of large-scale "basis trades." Previously, institutions fueled CME open interest by purchasing spot ETFs while simultaneously shorting CME futures to capture the basis spread. However, as Bitcoin's price retreated from its $120,000 high to below $70,000, the annualized basis return has narrowed significantly.
With the current basis return at roughly 5%—now close to the ~4.5% risk-free interest rate—arbitrage opportunities have virtually vanished once funding costs and counterparty risks are factored in, prompting leveraged capital to exit the market.