BroadChain News, April 22, 17:16, global M2 hit a record high of $13.44 trillion, and Bitcoin ETF fund flows turned positive for the first time in 14 months. However, the Iran conflict pushed March CPI to 3.3%, narrowing the path for Fed rate cuts. The macro environment remains supportive, albeit at a slower pace.
Bitcoin on-chain indicators have exited the Q1 panic zone and entered an early equilibrium stage. The current price of $70,500 is about 13% below the average cost basis of long-term holders at $78,000. Breaking this level will be a key signal for a short-term trend reversal. The target price of $143,000 and the potential for a 2x increase still hold, based on a neutral benchmark of $132,500, adjusted by -10% for fundamentals and +20% for macro factors.
Global liquidity is at an all-time high, but the channels for transmitting it to Bitcoin are limited. China contributes over 60% of M2 growth among the four major economies, but domestic crypto trading restrictions hinder effective liquidity flow into the market. Dollar liquidity remains the primary driver, but the Iran conflict has delayed the pace of Fed rate cuts. The March dot plot reduced the expected rate cuts in 2026 to just one, but the easing direction remains unchanged.
Institutional fund flows are beginning to reverse. Bitcoin spot ETFs have turned positive in monthly net inflows since March, with year-to-date cumulative flows turning positive and total assets under management recovering to $96.5 billion. Strategy spent $2.54 billion in a single week to purchase 34,164 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 815,061 BTC. On-chain indicators show that the average cost basis of short-term holders is gradually declining, speculative funds are exiting, and new buyers are accumulating at lower prices.
The key risk level is the network-wide average cost basis of $54,000; a break below this would trigger an extreme bottom. The strongest resistance level is at $78,000, coinciding with the average entry cost of long-term holders. While trading volume has increased by 37.9% on the surface, active addresses have decreased by 13.2% year-over-year, and the average transfer size has dropped by 34.1%, reflecting a stagnation in real network expansion. The TVL of the BTCFi ecosystem has fallen by 74% year-to-date, and the fundamental indicator has been downgraded to -10%.
Three short-term points to watch: breaking through the mid-term equilibrium level of $78,000, sustained net inflows into ETFs, and a shift in Fed policy after geopolitical risks ease. If all three materialize simultaneously, the $143,000 target remains achievable.