BroadChain, April 24, 19:30, according to NewsBTC, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that Bitcoin may not see a meaningful recovery until October or November, with the current pullback still aligning with its historical four-year cycle pattern. Speaking at the Solana Policy Summit, he noted that despite a more favorable regulatory environment in Washington, the "policy-driven rebound" investors had hoped for has not materialized, as whales and long-term holders continue to sell into ETF-driven demand.
Scaramucci said Bitcoin has passed the midpoint of the halving cycle and entered the latter half, typically not seeing a true recovery until the first quarter of the following year. Macro factors, such as Trump's tariff rhetoric and geopolitical conflicts, may have slightly accelerated the timeline, but Bitcoin remains "quite sticky" amid the turmoil. He expects the recovery window to be in "October or November."
Regarding why ETF demand has failed to push prices higher, Scaramucci explained that while ETFs bring in new buyers—including "baby boomers" entering through traditional brokerages—the supply side faces massive selling from whales and early holders. "They have been heavily injecting tokens into the market near the $100,000 level," causing Bitcoin to drop to around $69,000. He believes that full institutional adoption will require the passage of market structure legislation, such as the "Clear Act," otherwise banks will not broadly offer custody, yield, and lending services.
On the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, Scaramucci expressed support but stressed it must be free from partisan controversy. He advocates first retaining the Bitcoin the government holds through legal actions, rather than rushing to push for new purchases. As of press time, BTC is trading at $77,844.