分析师:比特币再探新低概率已大幅降低

Analyst: Probability of Bitcoin Revisiting New Lows Has Significantly Decreased

BroadChainBroadChain04/18/2026, 12:16 PM
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Summary

BroadChain learned that at 12:16 on April 18, according to Bitcoinist, Bitcoin's recent price action has intensified market divergence. Analyst Sykodelic pointed out that based on long-term technical signals, the probability of Bitcoin experiencing another deep correction has significantly decreased. The core of the analysis lies in the performance of the weekly chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI): historically, the RSI has only fallen below 30 three times, with the most recent occurrence in the first quarter of 2026. Currently, the RSI has returned to the normal range and broken through the downtrend line, which indicates an extremely low probability of the price setting new lows. Multiple bottom signals have formed a resonance, with approximately 12 important bottom indicators being triggered. On-chain data also provides support: Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have dropped to a seven-year low.

BroadChain learned that at 12:16 on April 18, according to Bitcoinist, Bitcoin's recent trend has intensified market divergence. Analyst Sykodelic pointed out that based on long-term technical signals, the probability of Bitcoin experiencing another deep correction has significantly decreased. The core of the analysis lies in the performance of the weekly chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI): historically, the RSI has only fallen below 30 three times, with the most recent occurrence in the first quarter of 2026. Currently, the RSI has returned to the normal range and broken through the downward trend line, indicating an extremely low probability of prices hitting new lows. Multiple bottom signals have formed resonance, with about 12 important bottom indicators being triggered. On-chain data also provides support: Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have dropped to a seven-year low, whale wallets have accumulated over $2 billion in purchases over the past two months, and after recording a net inflow of $1.32 billion in March, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of $954.05 million so far in April. The weekly price structure shows that BTC has broken through the downward trend line above $70,000, similar to the breakout patterns seen in early 2022, 2023, and 2025. Despite the positive signals, analysts emphasize the need to observe this week's closing performance. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $75,818, up 1.4% in 24 hours.