区块链50指数纠偏概念股炒作,指数样本质地仍待检验

Blockchain 50 Index Corrects Speculative Hype Around Blockchain-Related Stocks, but Index Composition Quality Remains to Be Tested

BroadChainBroadChain12/28/2019, 06:35 PM
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Summary

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) launched its first Blockchain 50 Index, aiming to guide rational capital allocation and accelerate real-world industry adoption. Penghua Fund has filed for a related ETF product; however, blockchain-related businesses contribute minimally to the financial performance of most index constituents, which remain in the exploratory phase. The index will undergo periodic rebalancing, and its representativeness and investment value await market validation.

Investor enthusiasm for blockchain development shows no signs of cooling.

On December 24, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) launched the SZSE Blockchain 50 Index (Code: 399286), marking the first blockchain-themed index across China's major exchanges. That same day, Penghua Fund filed an application for the "Penghua SZSE Blockchain 50 Exchange-Traded Open-Ended Index Securities Investment Fund." If approved, it would become China's first publicly offered mutual fund with "blockchain" in its name.

Speculation under the "blockchain" banner isn't limited to cryptocurrencies. The launch of an official, authoritative index could steer investors toward a deeper understanding of real-world blockchain applications and offer the industry a clearer roadmap for "blockchain + industrial integration." There's a growing consensus that easier capital access will accelerate the technology's adoption. With blockchain indices and related funds entering the market, the sector is poised to attract more financial attention. However, it's important to note that blockchain technology has yet to significantly impact the operating performance of most index constituents.

An "Official" Index to Curb Speculation

In the capital markets, the A-share blockchain sector has seen waves of broad rallies since late October, followed by repeated corrections and divergences. According to The China Business Herald, citing Tonghuashun iFinD data, 140 A-share companies are currently categorized under the "blockchain concept." Meanwhile, Choice Data shows over 4,300 institutions have conducted research visits to 97 such listed companies this year.

Previously, financial data platforms like Wind, Tonghuashun, and East Money had created their own "blockchain concept" classifications, but these lacked formal authority.

According to the SZSE, the Blockchain 50 Index aims to track the performance of Shenzhen-listed companies involved in the blockchain industry, providing investors with more index-based investment tools. The index selects constituents from companies whose businesses span the blockchain industry chain, ranking them by their average daily total market capitalization over the past six months and picking the top 50.

As A-share market structures and investor preferences evolve, index investing has become a dominant strategy.

"Indices act as the market's barometer and compass," Song Shuangjie, an analyst at TokenInsight Research Institute, told reporters. Sector-specific indices are crucial for investment analysis, performance evaluation, asset allocation, and index-based investing. As an emerging field, blockchain has long suffered from a lack of scientific industry classification and professional sector indices. The SZSE's launch of this index signals its long-term confidence in the blockchain industry.

Song Jiaji, Director of the Guosheng Securities Blockchain Research Institute, noted that the index provides a platform and tool for capital markets to support blockchain development. "Currently, investment channels for the blockchain industry are very limited. We can expect more blockchain-related sector indices and even ETFs to launch soon, improving capital accessibility. The industry will use this influx of capital to drive real-world application," he said.

According to the CSRC website, Penghua Fund filed its application on the same day the index launched, indicating rapid progress for related index products.

However, most fund management companies are holding back. One fund manager admitted candidly, "We don't understand it well enough, so we're hesitant to get involved." He emphasized that blockchain currently contributes very little to the earnings of these constituent stocks, and that fundamental analysis and financial performance remain paramount.

Ma Zhaofeng, Director of the Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications Blockchain Lab, believes the index's key value lies in its guiding role for the capital markets. "Although most blockchain applications are still early-stage, expanded capital channels are expected to attract more investment, financing, and M&A activity in related sectors," he said.

Performance Impact: A Wait-and-See Game

Domestic capital markets focus on the practical implementation of blockchain across industries. However, given the technology's early stage, widespread adoption requires coordination across multiple societal factors, and tangible results will take time.

Our review finds the 50 index constituents span finance, software, media, telecom, logistics, and IT services. Blockchain applications among these firms are relatively concentrated in finance, copyright protection, healthcare, traceability, and government services.

For instance, Ping An Bank's (000001.SZ) 2018 annual report shows its blockchain deployment focuses on a supply-chain accounts receivable platform, addressing fragmented financing needs while enabling precise, tamper-proof transaction tracing. ANNI Co., Ltd. (002235.SZ) has built a blockchain-based copyright trading platform for mass registration, infringement monitoring, and rights enforcement.

Notably, many index constituents have seen strong price gains this year, with several stocks doubling in 2019. For example, Jinyi Technology (002869.SZ) surged over 300%, while Tonghuashun (300033.SZ) nearly doubled. Overall, however, "blockchain + industry" development is still in its infancy, with no discernible impact on core business operations. Most companies' blockchain initiatives remain exploratory or in R&D, with few mature, commercially deployed projects.

Regarding its inclusion, Jinyi Technology stated it has not made substantial investments in blockchain theory or application research for intelligent transportation, launched any related business, or generated direct economic returns—thus having no material impact on its finances or operations.

Meanwhile, some other constituents face serious challenges, including goodwill impairments and operational disputes. Notably, Zhongying Interconnection (002464.SZ) announced on December 22 that it expects to record goodwill impairment charges of RMB 1–1.3 billion for its subsidiaries Hong Kong Mogu Technology and Beijing Xin Cailiang Technology. According to its 2018 annual report, the company's RMB 23.59 million R&D expenditure was primarily directed toward cryptocurrency exchange and mining pool management systems.

Yu Rui, Chief Analyst at ChainTowers Intelligence, observes that a key issue for A-share blockchain companies is the unclear link between their blockchain operations and financial performance—"how they make money" remains unconvincing.

Some insiders also point out that exchanges offer numerous indices with significant overlap—for instance, fintech and blockchain concepts share many companies. Consequently, the popularity and capital-attracting power of such indices remain uncertain.

Additionally, two major forces in blockchain are widely recognized: native blockchain companies (e.g., Qulian, ComplexEase, Bubi Blockchain) and internet/tech giants (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei). Within the A-share market, however, the technical depth and representativeness of listed firms' blockchain capabilities are debatable. Some companies have entered the space through superficial collaborations with native blockchain firms.

Yuan Yuming, CEO of Huobi China, told reporters that listed companies are a primary arena for its technology transfer and partnerships. "Blockchain aligns strongly with sectors like finance, supply chains, intelligent manufacturing, data, and evidence preservation, but less so with others. Therefore, alignment between a company's core business and blockchain is a central criterion in our evaluations," he said.

Like all indices, the Blockchain 50 Index undergoes periodic adjustments. Its constituents are reviewed and rebalanced semiannually—on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December.

Regarding the index's representativeness and performance-driving value, many insiders prefer to "wait and see." Yuan Yuming notes that the SZSE launched the TMT 50 Index in 2010, emphasizing the transformative role of internet and hardware technologies. That index didn't include all mainstream internet companies but still held analytical value. Similarly, while the Blockchain 50 Index may not be comprehensive today, as the technology matures, we should expect widespread real-world deployment in the next two to three years. At that point, constituent stocks may refresh, and the index's intrinsic value could rise accordingly.