Bitcoin Shows Resilience Amid Geopolitical Conflict, Analysts Maintain Bullish Targets

According to BroadChain, at 19:16 on April 20, CryptoNews reported that tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated again, with Iran announcing control over the strait and the U.S. threatening to strike Iran's power grid, intensifying geopolitical risks. Over the past 48 hours, Brent crude oil rose to $88, European natural gas futures surged by 11%, S&P 500 futures fell by 0.6%, while Bitcoin only corrected by 0.5%, demonstrating relative resilience. Since the outbreak of the conflict on February 28, this marks the fourth major escalation, but each subsequent cryptocurrency sell-off has been shallower than the previous one. Bitcoin remained stable above $70,000 even after the Bank of England's deputy governor warned of market stress risks on April 18. After hitting a 2026 low of $63,000 in February, Bitcoin rebounded to $78,000 due to ceasefire negotiations, during which $200 million in short positions were liquidated. The current price is around $74,000, positioned in the middle of a five-week consolidation range between $73,000 and $78,000. Technical indicators show a slight oversold rebound in the RSI following the long lower shadow on April 1, while Chaikin Money Flow data indicates active buying on dips despite high volatility, similar to the consolidation pattern observed after the Ukraine war in 2022. Key support has shifted upward to $73,000, with resistance concentrated between $76,000 and $78,000. The Polymarket prediction platform shows an over 80% probability of an agreement being reached before the end of June. If a ceasefire is confirmed and the strait reopens, Bitcoin could break through $78,000 and potentially reach the $80,000 to $94,000 range within weeks. Investment bank Bernstein maintains its year-end 2026 target of $150,000, partly based on MicroStrategy's purchase of 4,871 BTC (worth $329.9 million) between April 1 and 5 during the peak of the conflict, indicating that long-term holders are buying. Analysts note that Bitcoin needs to sequentially break through multiple catalysts such as a ceasefire, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic easing to achieve further significant gains.