BroadChain, April 23, 22:16, according to Bitcoinist, Galaxy Digital pointed out in a research report on April 22 that the most important market structure bill for the US crypto industry, the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025" (CLARITY Act), has entered its "endgame phase," with the probability of being signed into law in 2026 estimated at about 50-50, or possibly even lower. The bill passed the House with bipartisan support in July 2025 and is currently being negotiated in the Senate.
The core obstacle is not a single issue but multiple unresolved matters that need to be addressed sequentially on a tight legislative calendar. Galaxy stated that the Senate Banking Committee's markup, originally scheduled for the last week of April, may be postponed to May. Key negotiator Senator Thom Tillis has called for the markup to be delayed until May. If the markup is postponed beyond mid-May, the probability of passage in 2026 will drop significantly.
The bill still needs to go through multiple procedures, including committee markup, a 60-vote threshold in the Senate, coordination with the Agriculture Committee's version, and then reconciliation with the House version. Galaxy noted that each step requires time, and the Senate's agenda is already strained due to debates on Iran military authorization, a stalemate over Department of Homeland Security funding, and a large backlog of nominations.
The main point of contention remains the stablecoin reward clause—banks and crypto companies disagree on whether exchanges can offer incentives related to holding and using stablecoins. Galaxy stated that a compromise being negotiated by Tillis and Senator Angela Alsobrooks would prohibit rewards "solely for holding" stablecoins but allow activity-based incentives tied to payments, transfers, or platform usage. The text has not yet been released.
Additionally, there are multiple unresolved issues in the negotiations, including protections for non-custodial software developers, ethics rules for government officials' crypto asset holdings, the impact of SEC tokenization exemption provisions, and political issues surrounding vacancies on the SEC. Galaxy believes these issues may not be fatal individually, but together they make the timeline extremely fragile.
Senator Bernie Moreno expressed a similar view, stating, "We will finish by the end of May." He warned last month that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass in May, crypto legislation could be shelved for the foreseeable future. Galaxy emphasized that if control of either chamber changes after the midterm elections, the prospects for crypto legislation will significantly worsen. The current window, though narrow, remains the best opportunity for the bill to pass.