Why do people HODL?
Is it for greater returns? An act of faith? Or a way to break down class barriers? A thousand HODLers might give you a thousand different answers. These reasons can change dramatically—or even fade away—over time, while others remain deeply held convictions.
On the afternoon of May 14, just four days before the first-ever "HODL Day," early Bitcoin maximalist and P2PBUCKS founder TumbleBit (@TumbleBit) joined an AMA on ChainNode. Hosted by community figure "Niutou Dage" (Brother Ox-Head), the session sparked a lively discussion on the philosophy and practice of HODLing.
What does BTC's "eternal bull market" really mean? Does it imply the price will only go up forever? What triggers it, and when can we expect it to start? What exactly *is* HODLing? These questions inevitably arise, prompting deep reflection and skepticism at the very edge of faith.
The eternal bull market begins when Bitcoin's annual inflation rate falls below that of the US dollar.
This is the "Bitcoin Singularity Theory" proposed by Si Hai in April 2019. He predicted this event would occur in May 2025—after which, those without Bitcoin ("nocoiners") would permanently fall behind in wealth accumulation. He also outlined a tiered classification for HODLers before the singularity:
Tier C: ≥ 0.21 BTC
Tier B: ≥ 2.1 BTC
Tier A: ≥ 21 BTC
Tier S: ≥ 210 BTC
Tier S+: ≥ 2100 BTC
Later, on June 22, 2019, Si Hai tweeted: "We have already entered the eternal bull market." But is there a theoretical basis for the "Singularity Theory"? And why was the date moved up? Si Hai clarified that the criterion is simple, as highlighted above:
The eternal bull market starts when Bitcoin's inflation rate stays consistently below the US dollar's. This year, the USD's inflation rate is around 2.4%, while Bitcoin's post-halving rate is 1.8%—confirming we're in the eternal bull market. Once here, HODLers simply need to hold and wait for appreciation. Regarding his tier system, Si Hai advised users to aim for the highest tier possible before the singularity. Those with average skill and luck should target at least Tier B; achieving Tier A can secure lifelong financial security for oneself and family. After the singularity, reaching Tier B will become extremely difficult for ordinary people. And those who fall from Tier S or above will never regain their former status.
Although the "Singularity Theory" suggests the eternal bull market has begun—giving HODLers some peace of mind—the current global financial turmoil inevitably raises doubts: Could we be heading into a Great Depression where all financial assets plummet? If the entire financial system collapses, can Bitcoin really remain unscathed? In response, Si Hai emphasized that the key issue is fiat currency credibility, stating:
Events don't unfold in a straight line. A Great Depression is based on widespread poverty *while* fiat currency retains credibility. But what if the US dollar itself fails? For Bitcoin to become a true global reserve currency, it must decouple from the USD—and I believe that moment is approaching.
Bitcoin vs. Real Estate: The Aisin Gioro Descendants Can't Live in the Forbidden City Today
"Buy real estate or HODL Bitcoin?" remains a tough dilemma for many in the crypto community—especially those with existing assets. A wrong choice could lead to deep regret. On this question, Si Hai argued that while both assets hedge against inflation, the critical difference is ownership: Bitcoin is entirely yours, while real estate ownership depends on a title deed—meaning it's not fully yours. As he illustrated: The descendants of the Aisin Gioro clan cannot live in the Forbidden City today; property deeds from the Republic of China era were not recognized after 1949.
He added that domestic real estate has many flaws—such as shared common area square footage—which ultimately burden buyers. Housing, he noted, is simple: buy at the lowest suitable price to enjoy its utility. Land, in the end, belongs to no one, so worrying about titles or ownership rights is unnecessary.
As for Bitcoin—a truly "yours alone" asset free from title flaws—its price volatility remains the biggest concern for holders. Regarding the recent halving, one user asked: If Bitcoin faces coordinated regulatory crackdowns, sustained year-long hash-rate attacks, and aggressive futures short-selling (a hypothetical but plausible scenario), can it survive? And if so, how low could the price go? Si Hai responded:
"Regulatory crackdowns + year-long hash-rate attacks + aggressive futures short-selling"—all three have happened before. Bitcoin's global distribution, however, disperses such attacks across jurisdictions. As for Bitcoin's absolute floor price under such stress, it could be extremely low—but its finite supply and scarcity mean such lows won't last. After all, substantial capital remains bullish on Bitcoin; never underestimate speculative forces. Si Hai has publicly stated that, five years from now, an A-tier HODLer (≥21 BTC) without real estate will outperform a nocoiner owning property in a first-tier Chinese city. At today's BTC price, an A-tier HODLer holds roughly ¥1.4 million worth of Bitcoin—while entry-level homes in new first-tier cities like Hangzhou cost between ¥2.5–5 million. How this dynamic plays out remains to be seen. Will HODLers someday decisively surpass nocoiners? No one knows the final outcome today. And does that outcome even matter? That brings us back to the original soul-searching question: Why, truly, do we HODL?