According to BroadChain, at 20:16 on April 22, despite Bitcoin's price having retreated approximately 27% from its Q1 high, the latest valuation report indicates that its long-term upward logic remains solid. The report sets a 12-month target price of $143,000, implying over 100% potential upside from the current level of around $70,500. This target is based on a neutral baseline of $132,500, adjusted by +20% for the macro environment and -10% for fundamentals.
On the macro front, global liquidity is at a historical high, with M2 reaching $13.44 trillion. However, the transmission of this liquidity to the Bitcoin market is hindered, primarily because China contributed over 60% of the M2 growth, yet crypto trading is restricted within its borders. Dollar liquidity remains the main driver, but the surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran conflict pushed the US March CPI to 3.3%, narrowing the Federal Reserve's path for interest rate cuts.
Nevertheless, the direction of easing remains unchanged, and Bitcoin spot ETF flows turned net positive in March after five consecutive months of net outflows. On-chain data shows the market is transitioning from an undervalued zone towards early equilibrium. Key indicators like MVRV-Z have moved out of panic territory. The current price is about 13% below the long-term holder average cost of $78,000; breaking through this level would be a key signal for a short-term trend reversal. The network-wide average cost of $54,000 constitutes a crucial support level.
Regarding fundamentals, network activity shows "superficial growth." The average daily transaction count in the first half of April reached 564,000, a 37.9% year-on-year increase, but the number of active addresses dropped to 428,000, down 13.2% year-on-year. The total value locked (TVL) in the Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem has fallen 74% year-to-date, and the overall development of BTCFi has fallen short of expectations, leading to a downgrade in the fundamental score.
The report suggests that achieving the target price requires monitoring three short-term signals: whether the price can decisively break through the $78,000 resistance level, whether ETF funds can sustain net inflows, and a clear policy shift from the Federal Reserve after geopolitical risks ease. Although the target price has been lowered from the Q1 forecast of $185,500, the actual potential upside has expanded due to the spot price correction.