Geopolitical Risk Premium Subsides, Bitcoin Recovers $78,000 Mark
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Summary
BroadChain learned that at 05:00 on April 19, according to CryptoNews, influenced by the two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreement, international oil prices fell, compressing the risk premium related to the Strait of Hormuz that had been suppressing risk assets for months. The price of Bitcoin once broke through $78,000 yesterday, the first time since early February, before retreating and stabilizing. This rebound triggered $427 million in short position liquidations. Meanwhile, crypto-related stocks outperformed Bitcoin itself, with Coinbase, Robinhood, and Strategy shares rising at least 25% each by the close of trading last Friday, while BTC gained slightly less than 7% over five trading days. Citi analyst Alex Sau
According to BroadChain, at 05:00 on April 19, CryptoNews reported that due to the impact of the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, international oil prices fell, compressing the risk premium of the Strait of Hormuz that had been suppressing risk assets for months. The price of Bitcoin once broke through $78,000 yesterday, marking the first time since early February, before retreating and stabilizing. This rebound triggered $427 million in short position liquidations. Meanwhile, crypto-related stocks outperformed Bitcoin itself, with Coinbase, Robinhood, and Strategy shares rising at least 25% by the close of last Friday, while BTC gained slightly less than 7% over five trading days. Citigroup analyst Alex Saunders noted that after recent declines, the correlation between crypto assets and stocks has strengthened, with the stock market currently driving the crypto market upward. On-chain data shows that Tether has resumed BTC accumulation, transferring 951 BTC to a wallet labeled "Tether: BTC Reserve." Technically, Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-day exponential moving average during the ceasefire-driven rally, with current resistance in the $75,000 to $80,000 range and support at $62,000 at the bottom of the two-month consolidation range. If the ceasefire holds, lower oil prices could strengthen expectations of a Fed rate cut, and spot demand may push BTC above $80,000. The average target price from prediction models is $78,600, with an upper limit near $82,500. Whale data shows that wallets holding over 10,000 BTC recorded net inflows for the second time in 2026, indicating organic accumulation. However, some analysts, including Steve McClurg of Canary Capital, believe that 2026 is still in the "bear market phase" of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, historically characterized by 60-80% peak retracements.