BroadChain News, April 24, 13:22, Bitcoin has rebounded to $78,000, breaking through the Real Market Mean ($78,100), marking the first mean reversion since mid-January. On-chain data shows that the short-term holder cost basis is currently at $80,100, forming a direct resistance ceiling.
If the price further rises to $80,000, it will put over 54% of recent buyers into a profitable state. Historical data indicates that this ratio is often the critical point where selling pressure exhausts during bear market rallies. In the current cycle, this is the second time such a structure has appeared.
Short-term holder realized profits have surged to $4.4 million per hour, nearly three times the $150,000 threshold observed at various local highs this year. In the absence of substantial demand catalysts, the market needs to remain cautious.
ETF flows have turned mildly positive again, with the 7-day moving average re-entering the inflow zone, indicating that institutional demand is beginning to return after a prolonged period of outflows. Early signs of spot demand recovery have also emerged: the cumulative volume delta has turned positive, showing increased buyer initiative, particularly on offshore exchanges.
Perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, reflecting an increase in short positions. If spot demand continues to strengthen, this could become fuel for price increases. Volatility remains persistently compressed, with implied volatility across all tenors continuing to decline, realized volatility confirming compression, and no premium priced into options.
Option skew reflects short-term position adjustments, but long-term downside protection continues to see firm buying. Gamma and flow dynamics depict the current landscape: mechanical resistance exists near the $80,000 level above, while a drop to $75,000 faces the risk of accelerated downside.