If the Midterm Elections Are Lost, Where Will Trump's Crypto Policy Turn?

According to BroadChain, at 09:16 on April 21, historical data from PANews shows that in the 20 midterm elections since 1946, the ruling party has lost congressional seats 90% of the time, averaging a loss of 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats, which has almost become a political norm. Currently, Trump faces a 41% approval rating and a 57% disapproval rating, with an economic approval rating of only 31%, hitting a new low in his career. Coupled with unfavorable factors such as the Iran conflict, tariffs increasing average household monthly expenses by $233, and oil prices potentially exceeding $120, the Republican Party's slim majority of just 5 seats in the House is at risk. Prediction markets indicate an 84% probability that Democrats will regain control of the House, but the Senate landscape is relatively favorable for Republicans, potentially resulting in a "divided government." This means Trump's legislative agenda will be hindered, and crypto policies will primarily rely on executive orders, agency appointments, budget reconciliation processes, and presidential veto power to advance. Structural legislation requiring majority support in both houses, such as the CLARITY Act and stablecoin bills, may be shelved, and the long-term legal certainty anticipated by the industry could be delayed until after 2028. The crypto industry has invested at least $288 million in an attempt to influence the midterm elections, but voters' decisions are more likely to be based on the economy and cost of living rather than specific crypto provisions. Although the Trump administration has already driven a shift in the SEC's stance, approved ETFs, and placed stablecoin bills on the agenda, creating an unprecedented friendly landscape, the legislative window is rapidly closing before the summer of 2026, and the industry needs to focus on this rather than the election results themselves.